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Insights

With decades of experience investing in global equity markets, our portfolio managers develop quarterly Market Outlook and Investment Insights features to provide insight into our thoughts and views and to help our clients navigate the global equity markets.  Read our Insights below, or subscribe to have new Insights delivered to your email.

Market Outlook

Tariffs, Taxes & Turmoil
Market Outlook: 4Q 2024

 

 

 

 

Last year we witnessed unprecedented levels of political turmoil, and there were many reasons why this was the case. 2024 was a year in which there were elections in sixty countries. Voters all over the world turned out incumbents time and again. The incoming American president has proposed a 60% tariff on US imports from China. The People’s Republic did not help their case at all as they recently announced that their trade surplus reached almost $1 trillion in 2024. However, the president-elect has also proposed tariffs on America’s allies in Europe. He has even proposed tariffs of 25% on America’s neighbors: Canada and Mexico. The evolving and unpredictable nature of America’s trade policy was a significant source of uncertainty for businesses and investors during Trump’s prior presidency. Apparently, it will be so again...

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Goldilocks versus 3 Bears
Market Outlook: 3Q 2024

 

 

 

 

Global equity investors have driven stocks higher this year. The main MSCI index for global stocks is up almost 20% year-to-date. An objective observer could be forgiven for presuming that the outlook for investors is bright. The name sometimes associated with an environment such as the current one facing investors where there appear to be no discernable obstacles on the horizon is Goldilocks. It is said that markets are in a Goldilocks period, where naught but blue skies are to be expected. A sage of investing once said that prudent investors should strive to be fearful at such times, especially if other investors seem to be getting greedy. We believe this to be such a time. Caution is warranted as there may well be trouble brewing in this apparent investment paradise. In other words, Goldilocks needs to be on the lookout for the bears...

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Waiting on Rate Cuts... Still
Market Outlook: 2Q 2024

 

 

 

 

Interest rates have moved higher and stock market investors as well as their bond buying brethren are anxiously awaiting a wave of global policy rate cuts to put a firmer foundation under the global rally. That wait might go on for a while because current financial conditions are looser than most market participants believe. Yes, government bond yields, and the policy rates which inform them, are higher than they were a couple of years ago before central banks the world over began a campaign of rate hikes the likes of which had not been seen for decades. Their purpose was to force the inflation genie back into the bottle. While inflation no longer rages like an inferno, neither are the policymakers rushing to plaster “Mission Accomplished” signs all over the place...

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Volatility Rears its Head... Again!
Market Outlook: 1Q 2023
And the Winner is...
Market Outlook: 4Q 2022

Investment Insights

Is This the Beginning of a MEGA Trend?
Investment Insights:
March 2025

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After more than a decade of dominance, the US equity market has had a softer start this year. International equities are up in the first quarter while US equities have lagged. Meanwhile, European equity markets as defined by the MSCI developed markets European index, have been pulling ahead with countries like Germany and Spain rising by more than 15%, thus placing these markets among the best performers year-to-date in 2025. The marked divergence in performance thus far this year has resulted in European markets catching up with the US on a rolling one-year basis. This begs the question of whether European equities can continue to outperform. We are inclined to believe that European outperformance can be sustained this time around, and that we might just be at the beginning of a longer-term reversal which will result in European markets maintaining their lead over the US for some time...

China Needs to Rethink their Growth Playbook
Investment Insights:
October 2024

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In a surprise move last month, China’s politburo announced an array of stimulus measures to promote economic growth back to the target 5% rate and stabilize the capital markets as well as the property sector. Many have referred to these measures as the biggest bazookas triggered by Beijing and the PBOC to bolster economic growth and an equity market that has languished for the last 5 years. Chinese GDP growth slowed to 4.6% in the latest quarter, which is below the government target of 5%. And the Chinese stock market has been one of the worst performers in the last few years, lagging most developed and emerging equity markets. This raises the question of whether these measures initiated by the Chinese government are enough to pull China out of its doldrums. And a bigger question is whether or not they can change China’s growth trajectory, putting the economy on a higher growth path...

When Cash is Not King
Investment Insights: November 2023
Market Breadth in International Equities
Investment Insights: July 2023
Is Active Investing Making a Comeback?
Investment Insights: April 2023
Why Intl Equities Could Outperform
Investment Insights: January 2023
Changing Dynamics in Emerging Mkts
Investment Insights: October 2022

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